Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
YX 4715 · BOS → MDT
departs 8:59 PM ET · arrives 10:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 24%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MDT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDT?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MDT at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.01 in
MDT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.