Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4778
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4778 · IAH → PHL
departs 2:22 PM CT · arrives 6:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14
Sat 10/17 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.