Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4794
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4794 · BOS → ILM
departs 10:06 AM ET · arrives 12:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 11%
Sun 10/18 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
10am departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ILM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.03 in
ILM (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.