tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4794 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

YX 4794 · ILM → BOS

departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 3:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 97h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Wednesday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
36% chance · ±32 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 6.5d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to BOS?

  1. On time or early
    64%
  2. 15–30 min late
    5%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    12%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    10%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    7%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.