Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4795
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4795 · DSM → LGA
departs 7:11 AM CT · arrives 11:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
DSM is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DSM (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.20 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.