Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4807
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
YX 4807 · MEM → LGA
departs 2:09 PM CT · arrives 5:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 37%
Sun 10/18 19%
Mon 10/19 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.