Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5597
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5597 · JAX → BOS
departs 12:24 PM ET · arrives 3:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Mon 10/12 28%
Tue 10/13 33%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↑
12pm departures from JAX are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.