Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5601
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5601 · BOS → CVG
departs 8:45 AM ET · arrives 11:12 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 10%
Sun 10/18 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at CVG that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.01 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.