Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5602
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5602 · LGA → MEM
departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 10:24 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Mon 10/12 25%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
MEM is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.