Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5609 · BOS → LGA
departs 9:00 PM ET · arrives 10:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Tue 10/13 48%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 40%
Fri 10/16 49%
Sun 10/18 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±8 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
9pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.08 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.