Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5610
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5610 · BOS → PHL
departs 8:56 PM ET · arrives 10:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Tue 10/13 48%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 37%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.08 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.