Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5618 · LGA → HXD
departs 9:32 AM ET · arrives 11:55 PM CST
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 10/12 28%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at HXD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±2 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HXD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at HXD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HXD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
HXD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.