Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5623
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5623 · MKE → LGA
departs 1:18 PM CT · arrives 4:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 29%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.