Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5635
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5635 · LGA → IND
departs 6:10 PM ET · arrives 8:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Tue 10/13 22%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 38%
Fri 10/16 44%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.