Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5639
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5639 · DTW → IND
departs 4:05 PM ET · arrives 5:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 11%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.