Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5661
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5661 · LGA → IND
departs 8:11 PM ET · arrives 10:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 41%
Sun 10/18 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.