Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5669
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5669 · LGA → CMH
departs 11:43 AM ET · arrives 1:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at CMH that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.