Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5716
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
YX 5716 · BOS → LGA
departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 8:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 47%
Fri 10/16 52%
Sun 10/18 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±7 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.01 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.