Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5764
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5764 · BOS → EWR
departs 6:25 AM ET · arrives 7:54 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 5%
Fri 10/16 6%
Sat 10/17 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt
Ceiling 200 ft
Visibility 1 mi
Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt
Ceiling 2,700 ft
Visibility 6 mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.