Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5779
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5779 · RIC → LGA
departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 7:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 54%
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 44%
Fri 10/16 47%
Sun 10/18 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.