Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5780
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5780 · LGA → MKE
departs 8:03 PM ET · arrives 9:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 62%
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 35%
Fri 10/16 39%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MKE (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.