Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5783 · LGA → RIC
departs 5:26 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 40%
Fri 10/16 48%
Sat 10/17 22%
Sun 10/18 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.