Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5801 · BOS → CVG
departs 8:45 PM ET · arrives 11:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13 44%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 30%
Fri 10/16 35%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.01 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.