Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5805
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5805 · BOS → PHL
departs 9:57 AM ET · arrives 11:41 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from BOS are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.