Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5810
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5810 · CMH → DTW
departs 12:05 PM ET · arrives 1:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 5%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at CMH that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.40 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.