Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5816
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5816 · BOS → LGA
departs 6:04 AM ET · arrives 7:31 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 6%
Fri 10/16 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.1 mi Precip 0.03 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.