Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5819
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5819 · LGA → BOS
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 5:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Tue 10/13 44%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 37%
Fri 10/16 49%
Sun 10/18 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.