Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5822
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5822 · JFK → IAD
departs 10:20 AM ET · arrives 11:51 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 10/12 24%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.