Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5836
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5836 · BOS → ORF
departs 9:16 AM ET · arrives 11:12 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.08 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.