Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5854 · BOS → LGA
departs 12:00 PM ET · arrives 1:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 29%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
12pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.