Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4961 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

9E 4961 · CVG → LGA

departs 5:22 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.1 mi forecast at CVG that day

↑ 5pm departures from CVG are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ CVG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.1 mi Precip0.24 in

LGA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4961 · CVG → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?