Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5038 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

9E 5038 · AVL → LGA

departs 6:58 PM ET · arrives 8:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5038 · AVL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?