Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1268 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 1268 · MCI → PHL

departs 4:27 PM CT · arrives 8:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.60 in

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1268 · MCI → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?