Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1283 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 1283 · PHL → BNA

departs 8:57 AM ET · arrives 10:05 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1283 · PHL → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?