Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1481 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 1481 · PHL → EYW

departs 10:44 AM ET · arrives 2:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EYW?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into EYW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EYW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1481 · PHL → EYW

Odds over time

How late will it get to EYW?