Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1523 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 1523 · DEN → DFW

departs 9:04 AM MT · arrives 12:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±7 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.27 in

DFW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1523 · DEN → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?