tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1686 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AA 1686 · DFW → SNA

departs 7:06 AM CT · arrives 8:35 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
9% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 6.3d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to SNA?

  1. On time or early
    91%
  2. 15–30 min late
    3%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    3%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    2%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    1%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.