Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2072 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 2072 · LAX → SFO

departs 10:57 AM PT · arrives 12:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±8 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2072 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?