Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2122 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 2122 · PHL → AUS

departs 11:09 AM ET · arrives 2:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2122 · PHL → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?