Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2200 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 2200 · CHS → PHL

departs 6:08 AM ET · arrives 8:07 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ CHS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2200 · CHS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?