Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2218 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 2218 · LAX → LAS

departs 12:12 PM PT · arrives 1:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Gusts to 29 kt forecast at LAS that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2218 · LAX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?