Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2363 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 2363 · DEN → ORD

departs 12:09 PM MT · arrives 3:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.31 in

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2363 · DEN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?