Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2404 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 2404 · PHL → BOS

departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 6:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2404 · PHL → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?