Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2524 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15 Tomorrow

AA 2524 · PHL → FLL

departs 1:02 PM ET · arrives 3:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2524 · PHL → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?