Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2840 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 2840 · ORD → PHL

departs 3:42 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.48 in

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2840 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?