Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3118 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 3118 · PHL → DFW

departs 12:49 PM ET · arrives 3:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3118 · PHL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?