Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3166 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 3166 · PHL → SFO

departs 4:30 PM ET · arrives 7:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3166 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?