Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 3233 · BTV → PHL

departs 6:04 AM ET · arrives 7:43 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3233 · BTV → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?