Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3294 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 3294 · CMH → PHL

departs 3:15 PM ET · arrives 4:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from CMH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ CMH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.02 in

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3294 · CMH → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?