Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 331 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 331 · SDF → DFW

departs 8:06 AM ET · arrives 9:40 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SDF that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ 8am departures from SDF are usually not late

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.39 in

DFW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 331 · SDF → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?